Post-Roe World

Now that Roe v. Wade has been discarded, will this translate as a huge shift in votes for the Democrats in November?  I doubt it.

First, and most importantly, the people who are enraged and outraged by the Supreme Court decision are the same people who would have voted for Democrats in the first place.  People like PZ Myers.  This decision might have increased the Democrat turnout, but again, those outraged by the decision would have likely turned out anyway.  The problem Democrats have is their perpetual outrage about anything related to the GOP.  Since they are always outraged and upset about the Coming GOP-led Apocalypse, the loss of Roe v. Wade is just one more reason to be outraged among people already outraged.

Second, if the economy was good, an issue like abortion could rise to prominence.  But with gas prices trending more than $5 a gallon and inflation being as bad as it is, I’m not sure abortion is going to become a major issue.  After all, there are about 800,000 abortions per year.  Let’s split that in half since we are half-way through the year – 400,000.  Let’s split that in half again, as 200,000 will be able to access abortion because of the state they live in.  That leaves us with about 200,000 voters spread across the nation who won’t be able to get an abortion.  And many of them seeking the abortion could very well be Democrats who would vote Democrat anyway.  In the meantime, things like inflation and gas prices effect us all.  Day after day. 

As for those suburban moms (supposed swing voters), they are watching their retirement accounts dwindle away while, at the same time, it costs well over $100 to refill their SUVs.

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9 Responses to Post-Roe World

  1. The elites can only push their insane narratives on the ordinary working man or woman for so long. Eventually reality gets in the way and people lose interest.

  2. TFBW says:

    It may not cause more people to vote Blue in November, but it will be used as a post-hoc explanation for why the Democrats performed much better than the polls suggested.

  3. Ilíon says:

    Are you insinuating that the Dems may, once again, “find” more “votes” than voters?!?!?!

    Don’t you know that it’s insurrectionist, and even treasonous, to even imagine that any (*) Democrat “win” might have required some “fortification” of the election.

    Literally *everyone* knows that our elections are the most fair and secure ever, Unless the Republican wins.

    (*) Even the ones for which some Democrat or other is sentenced to prison.

  4. pennywit says:

    This strikes me as a correct analysis. Most of the polling I have seen indicates that most Americans are moderately pro-choice. But the same polling also shows that most voters also consider abortion alongside other issues. Those who vote on abortion as a primary issue tend to be either very conservative or very liberal.

    I don’t see this changing before November. That said, I do think that if Republicans enact extremely restrictive abortion bans, abortion could become a major issue in the 2024 campaign.

  5. Dhay says:

    H/T Jerry Coyne, AP’s “More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems”:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans. …

    While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide.

    But over the last year, roughly two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation shifted to the Republican Party. In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.

    The broad migration of more than 1 million voters, a small portion of the overall U.S. electorate, does not ensure widespread Republican success in the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress and dozens of governorships. Democrats are hoping the Supreme Court’s decision on Friday to overrule Roe v. Wade will energize supporters, particularly in the suburbs, ahead of the midterms.

    Still, the details about party switchers present a dire warning for Democrats who were already concerned about the macro effects shaping the political landscape this fall.

    Looks like Roe vs Wade is, as Michael has pointed out, just one of a number of issues affecting voting patterns.

  6. Ilíon says:

    ==Most of the polling I have seen indicates that most Americans are moderately pro-choice.==

    Frame the queston in terms of abortion, rather than some amorphous “choice”, and watch the polls go dramatically in the other direction.

  7. Michael says:

    I don’t see this changing before November. That said, I do think that if Republicans enact extremely restrictive abortion bans, abortion could become a major issue in the 2024 campaign.

    Agreed. But not likely IF the Democrats don’t blow up the filibuster. The filibuster would stop extremely restrictive federal abortion bans because you’ll never get 60 Senators to vote for that. Thus, the importance of the filibuster.

  8. Dhay says:

    > Now that Roe v. Wade has been discarded, will this translate as a huge shift in votes for the Democrats in November?

    A snippet from the BBC’s article, “Roe v Wade: Thousands march to White House for abortion rights”:

    …during Saturday’s event organised by the Women’s March, mention of Mr Biden’s Democratic party drew nearly as many jeers as did mention of the Republicans.

    We will find out what level of shift, and which way, in November; activists are vocal, but a minority. But I observe that it looks like the Democratic Party is “nearly as” unpopular as the Republican Party to Roe v Wade supporting activist marchers.

  9. Dhay says:

    Now that Roe v. Wade has been discarded, and the abortion issue passed to the States to determine for themselves, PZ Myers is enthusiastically using his blog as a propaganda tool to misrepresent what some states are now doing. This snippet from his 08 August 2022 “Honest campaign strategy: Republicans want to kill you” post asserts that Indiana has enacted a total ban on abortion, while quoting in evidence a Washington Post article which blindingly obviously contradicts his assertion:

    Already they’re taking steps to expand their oppression. Indiana has enacted a total ban on abortion.

    The Indiana ban, which goes into effect Sept. 15, allows abortion only in cases of rape, incest, lethal fetal abnormality, or when the procedure is necessary to prevent severe health risks or death. Indiana joins nine other states that have abortion bans starting at conception.

    The snippet is preceded by a cartoon depicting an ill-looking woman in bed and her doctor telling her, “Just a few more minutes, Ma’am… My lawyer informs me you have to be almost dead before we can induce a medically-necessary abortion.” That’s an obviously wrong interpretation of “at serious health risk” by the cartoonist, indeed it’s absurd, but that doesn’t deter Myers from quoting a cartoonist’s words in a cartoon fantasy as authoritative on the interpretation of the real-life Indiana legislation.

    Running through Myers’ post is some paranoid weirdness about “death panels”. “There’s your death panel,” says Myers of the cartoon (hence fictional) lawyer depicted standing by the doctor, “Republican lawyers enforcing Republican laws to make women suffer and die.”

    Yes, there’s more like that in the post. The mad scientist and mad professor memes are commonplace in literature and other media. Although they are unfair in general towards scientists and professors, indeed defamatory, I don’t think Myers would be defamed.

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